Land and planning gain calculator
Buy land or take an option, win planning permission and sell to a developer with consent. Work out what the site is worth with planning, what you make if it’s granted or refused, and whether the odds justify the spend.
Results
Residual land value with planning
£744,000
What a developer could pay for the site with consent, £372,000 an acre.
Uplift
+£148,800
Over the exercise price, 0.3× what you pay.
Profit if granted
£84,420
Before tax, selling at the residual value.
If refused
-£47,000
The option fee and planning costs are lost.
Probability-weighted
£31,852
At a 60% chance of consent.
Annualised return
90%
If granted, on £47,000 of your cash over 24 months.
Break-even probability
36%
The chance of consent at which the weighted profit is zero.
Sale price for your target
£830,556
To make £100,000 before tax, more than the residual value supports.
Three routes, same site
| Route | Cash in | If granted | If refused | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy outright | £99,500 | £629,620 | -£75,980 | £347,380 |
| Option· selected | £47,000 | £84,420 | -£47,000 | £31,852 |
| Promotion agreement | £37,000 | £138,424 | -£37,000 | £68,254 |
Buying outright uses the purchase price and finance above; the option uses the option terms.
Planning fees, CIL rates and the rules on permission in principle and Class Q change. Check current rules with the council and the Planning Portal before you budget.
Early access
Run this on real deals. Automatically.
Yieldhouse runs these numbers for you on the deals you forward or paste, with a valuation range and a Deal Score on each one. Join the waitlist for early access.
Free to join. Unsubscribe in one click.